Hope & hype

Wall Street Journal, June 2014: "But Brazil's rise stalled. After notching 7.5% growth in 2010, the economy is now in its fourth year of a slump, partly sapped by the steep fall in commodity prices.

My first blog post, February, 2011: "'Booming BRIC Brazil' is a red herring, as far as I can see. Relying on raw materials and commodities is no way to secure the country's future."

Wall Street Journal, June 2014: "The new consumer class ran out of steam after racking up big credit-card debts."

My first blog post, February, 2011: "I also note the toxic mix of rampant consumer credit and widespread financial illiteracy. Prices advertised in shop windows are invariably just a fraction of the real price because of the dependency on paying by installments."

Wall Street Journal, June 2014: "Manufacturing fell into recession as high taxes and crumbling infrastructure stifled competitiveness ... Oil production has stagnated amid corruption and mismanagement scandals ... Meantime, few major transportation projects were completed."

My first blog post, February, 2011: "I'm sure the tax regime here needs a complete, free-market-friendly overhaul, but I suspect an equally important factor in the inflated prices is an abundance of monopolies, oligopolies and price fixing. All of which, I suppose, relates back, one way or another, to corruption. ... The physical infrastructure (roads, sidewalks, electricity and telephone cables etc.) is often in very poor condition or even dangerous."

Wall Street Journal, June 2014: "A list of unfinished construction projects have become reminders of the shortcomings that many believe keep Brazil poor: overwhelming bureaucracy, corruption and shortsighted policy-making that prioritizes grand projects over needs like education and health care ... Today [there are] 70 million Brazilians over 25 who never finished high school."

My first blog post, February, 2011: "Meanwhile, the social infrastructure (dreadful bureaucracy and inefficiency) leaves Brazil trailing badly in the second decade of the twenty-first century ... The only way is to invest in human capital, and that means an unprecedented investment in education."

Wall Street Journal, June 2014: "When Mr. Monteiro saw demonstrators taking to the streets in cities across Brazil in June 2013, something clicked. Brazil was supposedly on the rise, but his life was no better. He ran out into the streets and found himself among youths wearing all black and clashing with police. The violence he saw unnerved him but it also matched his rage ... These days, he no longer thinks violence works. But he has a child on the way and his optimism is gone. "I worry about whether I can provide a good life for my son," he said.

My first blog post, February, 2011: "'Order and Progress" in today's Brazil ? Sorry, I don't see it. Nor do I sense much cause for optimism that things are about to change with this more-of-the-same government.What is needed, as the rest of the world races into the new millennium, is for Brazil to look outwards for inspiration and for ordinary Brazilians to demand the kind of change that they deserve and need."